Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dan Ariely

A Guest Post by Chris L'Heureux

We acknowledge that emotion can cloud human decision-making and affect action. We also know our mind creates shortcuts that are sometimes faulty. Despite this understanding, we often do not account for it. We think of ourselves as rational decision-makers, doing whatever offers the most utility based on the information available. This is not true. 

We are Predictably Irrational as Dan Ariely describes in this book, a fast and entertaining readAriely lays out several common traps found in human thinking with the hope that being aware of the traps helps us dodge the effects. 

Let’s review a few of Ariely’s more common snares: anchoring, the decoy effect, the endowment effect & loss aversion, and short-term thinking. 

Normandy ’44: D-Day and the Epic 77-Day Battle for France by James Holland

A Book Review by LTC Chris L'Heureux

Over the years, I’ve read a lot about Normandy and left few rocks uncovered. This book was in an Audible 2-for-1 sale, and I had low expectations…but it surprised! James Holland examines historical points of contention and challenges the accepted view. There is some review of well-tilled ground, but I took away several new insights. A few controversial highlights:

Bunker Hill: A City, A Siege, A Revolution (Audible) by Nathaniel Philbrick

A Book Review by LTC Chris L'Heureux

Philbrick writes an extremely accessible and well-balanced account describing the opening phase of the American Revolution. The Battle of Bunker Hill, certainly the centerpiece of the story, is only part of the narrative. In true historical form, Philbrick provides both the context and happenstance of events beginning with Paul Revere’s warning and ending with the British evacuation of Boston. The allure of this book is not the history but the detail that causes you to question the commonly understood narrative.

Thinking in Time: Lessons for Military Planners by Richard Neustadt and Ernest May

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Published towards the end of the Cold War, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers by Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May is a classic book worth revisiting by the current generation of military planners. Neustadt and May use historical case studies, ranging from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the Swine Flu Scare of 1976, to illustrate how a more reflective and systematic approach can help decision-makers and their staffs use history more effectively.[1] Most military planners are familiar with the cautionary suggestion to first understand what the problem is; the techniques offered in Thinking in Time echo this sentiment as they focus on “sharpening the picture of the present situation and for clarifying what is of concern about it.”[2] Some of the techniques or “mini-methods” as Neustadt and May refer to their recommended best practices, can help refine planning methods or processes, and improve the situational understanding for a planning team or decision-maker. Rather than serve as a book review, this piece intends to introduce some of Neustadt and May’s methods most relevant to military planners to pique the interest of those who may seek out this seminal work for professional development.

The Ugly American by William Lederer and Eugene Burdick

ugly american

I read The Ugly American for the first time eleven years ago on my way to Iraq as an advisor. It’s one of the few books I’ve ever rated with 5-stars, a rating I reserve for books that change the way I think about something. I picked it up again based recently with a renewed interest in foreign policy.

This is a story of Americans in a fictitious Southeast Asian country where the United States and the Soviet Union are vying for influence. Written in 1958, it foreshadows our foreign policy debacle in Vietnam, but do not let that fool you into thinking it lacks relevance. The fictitious nation trying to balance relationships between the United States and the Soviet Union could be one of several countries in the world today. Simply replace the Soviet Union with a contemporary American adversary like Russia or China and the effect remains.

I would love to say the portrayal of the American officials’ insensitivity to language, culture, and custom is rare, but the authors’ critical sarcasm of U.S. foreign policy comes from their witness to our arrogance. They base their stories on true accounts; in fact, the book was initially written as non-fiction. It was a plea for change. Not four years after this book was published, we helped the South Vietnamese government with the strategic hamlet program, a best practice copied from the Malayan Emergency. Culture and customs in Vietnam tied people to their land, something not found in Malaysia. Instead of improving conditions, the program helped isolate the population from the South Vietnamese government, not at all what was intended. Arrogance happens, and frankly, I saw some of the described behavior from senior U.S. officials while advising in Iraq not long ago. Not all behaved this way of course, but this book is a warning to approach interactions with caution and be wary of ourselves.

But if arrogance is innate, where does it come from? There are at least two potential drivers of arrogance highlighted by the story. The first source stems from hubris. Pride is easy when you globally dominate the economic and military spheres. Our success often blinds us, as can our national narrative. We believe hard work will bring success, but in some places, you need more than that. Another source of arrogance comes from bureaucracy. There are always disagreements between allies and this tension is exacerbated by bureaucracy. The hidden bureaucratic incentives drive us to dismiss others to achieve the stated and unstated goals in our organization. A contemporary Army example is our penchant for action and making things happen, a trait that serves us well on the battlefield but not so well when compromise is necessary. Hubris and bureaucracy cloud our ability to listen to another.

To overcome this flaw, Lederer and Burdick believe character is the answer. The protagonist, Homer Atkins, is an inventor, not a member of the government establishment. His dirty hands always “reminded him he was an ugly man.” He was humble, patient, and understanding. He listened and compromised to get things done for the country he loved and cared for, even if it was not his own. Because of that, he was the epitome of an ambassador.

The Ugly American sold over a million copies and had a profound impact on U.S. foreign policy. It is said to have been the genesis of President Kennedy’s Peace Corps. The funny part is that term ugly American is stuck in our lexicon the wrong way. The ugly American was the hero; it was the arrogant American, impeccably dressed, that was ugly.

Lieutenant Colonel Christopher L’Heureux is an Armor Officer currently assigned as an instructor at the School of Command Preparation. He commanded 2d Squadron, 2d US Cavalry in Vilseck, Germany.

The Elements of Style, 4th Edition by William Shrunk & E.B. White

Style Pic

Part of a book club a few years back, I read and discussed a book that half the group thought read like a college paper. They were turned-off, their attention applied to structure over the content. This skewed the subsequent discussion away from the author’s arguments towards the monotonous tone of the book. It was a well-reasoned and thoughtful thesis, but it did not capture the attention of at least half of us. How do you prevent that in your own writing?

The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters by Tom Nichols


A book review by Chris L’Heureux

Current technology exposes people to massive and ever-increasing amounts of information. Nichols argues that this trove of knowledge paradoxically makes us dumber in his well-researched book. A small bit of knowledge fuels human bias giving us a false reason to believe we are experts. The Death of Expertise lays out how we got here.

Nichols, a professor at the US Naval War College, codifies something we see every day on TV talk shows and news channels: everyone is as smart as everyone else. ‘You’re wrong’ is the same as ‘You’re stupid.’ Reasoned arguments convince nobody and how we feel rules the day. Why do we all think we’re experts? We have access to massive amounts of instantaneous information, and we lack the ability to determine if it’s real or fake. We need to pause and reflect but technology imbibes us to comment without thinking. Our education system gives us an inflated sense of self. Everyone gets a trophy because bad grades aren’t good for business; top grades go to our heads. These things combine in the information space that feeds bias. Anti-vaxxers are a notable example. Despite many scientific studies to the contrary, the idea that the MMR vaccine leads to autism still exists. No doubt this problem will grow as 5G and AI make the information we look for easier to come by.

This danger in the military is greater. We flippantly talk in terms of mastery and claim ourselves experts in the fundamentals despite changing jobs every two years or less. Our personnel system values the breadth of experience and we hardly come close to hitting the 10,000-hour rule on any specific skill. Denying evidence to stay aligned with values and beliefs sounds like fighting the plan and not the enemy. How can I make the facts fit my theory? There are plenty of historical examples; the Chinese intervention in the Korean War readily comes to mind.

Nichols supplies few prescriptions. His stand-out recommendation is to develop the skill of metacognition: understanding one’s own thoughts. Studies show the less one knows about a topic, the more confident they are in their knowledge of the topic. Self-awareness might be the only way to get past this bias. But how?

Be eclectic. Get your information from various sources and perspectives. Read things that you know will piss you off and reflect. Study and be wary of bias. Take time to think. Nourish self-doubt. Question everything, especially your beliefs and cultivate someone to challenge you. This will help you realize that you do not have expert knowledge. How does the quote go? ‘The more I learn, the less I know.’ Lastly, listen to experts. That requires trust because they are not always correct. Experts have a better guess informed by their depth of knowledge.

While nothing in this book was novel, it is something to consider and worth a look to anyone who wants to better understand how we got to where we are.

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Lieutenant Colonel Christopher L’Heureux is an Armor Officer who enjoys running, sampling whiskey, and thinking about big ideas.

Drive: The Surprising Truth about What Motivates Us

A fantastic read about our flawed perception of motivation. Daniel Pink lays out a convincing argument that the old ‘carrot & stick’ approach to incentives is dead wrong. While a rewards & punishment approach works for simple tasks, one needs intrinsic motivation based on autonomy, competence, and purpose to accomplish complex and creative tasks. This is because we psychologically want to direct our own lives, be better than what we are, and yearn to be part of something bigger than ourselves.

Overall a short tome that is well researched and written. I burned through this one fast and did not need to flip back and forth to follow the thesis and evidence.

A must-read for anyone who aspires to lead or motivate others where commitment is valued over compliance.

A book review by Chris L’Heureux